What to inspect first
Start with the assumptions that move the whole model: pricing, volume, gross margin, churn, collections timing, and implementation cost. If those are wrong, the output is wrong no matter how polished the spreadsheet looks.
Checklist for unit economics
- Confirm the unit price and whether discounts are already included.
- Check gross margin after direct costs and servicing costs.
- Review customer acquisition cost versus lifetime value.
- Validate payback period against realistic sales and onboarding cycles.
- Model a downside scenario at a lower volume and slower collections speed.
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Why downside scenarios matter
Most executive teams do not need a perfect forecast. They need to know what happens when the best case misses. A downside scenario should show whether the business still survives when revenue lands below target and collections take longer than planned.
How to present the result
Summarize the biggest assumption risks, the adjusted model outputs, and the questions that still need answers. That is enough to move the discussion from optimism to evidence.